Ten years ago when we were all worried about the coming Mayan calendar’s end, a Russian-American scientist who specialized in population biology and someone who devised theories theorized that 2012 was “bullshit.” He said 2020 was the REAL year to worry about.
And now, in the middle of the most tumultuous year in generations, perhaps the call of bullshit a decade ago was more spot on than we knew.
Peter Turchin
Turchin predicted that 2020 would be a true year of tumult based off of historical timelines.
The main source for this information comes from an archived article on VICE.COM about Turchin.. It was printed October 30, 2012, just before the dreaded 12/21/12 date. The ‘end’ times..! And he actually predicted it all in 2010!
Among the facts reported by Jamie Clifton from the interview with Peter Turchin, in his own words:
Historical studies show that society goes through long-term cycles of violence: There’s a build-up for roughly a century, then a period of violence, or upheaval, for ten or 15 years. Then people get tired of it and the next generation goes back to being peaceful. It’s then the grandchildren of that generation—who never experienced the severity of upheaval firsthand—who are likely to start causing problems again. My theory suggests that it will be 2020 when the US hits a new peak of violence
What did he mean by violence?
There are three distinct kinds of violence that I’ve included in my research. Firstly there is “groups on groups,” which, in the case of modern-day America, would be riots. Then there is “groups against individuals,” which would be lynchings and that kind of thing. Lastly, there is “individuals against groups,” which are what we call rampage killings. We’ve seen a very fast rise recently in that last one. It’s where one person mows down a group of people by himself, which is essentially terrorism, but it’s not referred to as that here because it’s American-on-American violence.
And finally.. Turchin concluded what would cause the 2020 upheaval:
Historically, the trouble has always come from people with power, and the number of those people who want the most power. There are too many political entrepreneurs who are all trying to get power, and they get frustrated, which is how revolutions start: when members of the elite try to overturn the political order to better suit themselves.
And since he was right so many years back, he gets the bragging rights today..
Peter Turchin wrote on his blog this month:
Our conclusion is that, unfortunately, my 2010 forecast is correct. Unfortunately, because I would have greatly preferred it to become a “self-defeating prophecy”, but that clearly has not happened.
What does it mean for the current wave of protests and riots? The nature of such dynamical processes is such that it can subside tomorrow, or escalate; either outcome is possible.A spark landing even in abundant fuel can either go out, or grow to a conflagration.
What is much more certain is that the deep structural drivers for instability continue to operate unabated. Worse, the Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated several of these instability drivers. This means that even after the current wave of indignation, caused by the killing of George Floyd, subsides, there will be other triggers that will continue to spark more fires—as long as the structural forces, undermining the stability of our society, continue to provide abundant fuel for them.
